A decisive result. Now the questions begin.
I was quite taken by surprise this morning when I switched on my radio. It was obvious within seconds Donald Trump had won the American election. Everyone had predicted the result would be so close it would take a long time to work out who won and then to dismiss all the legal challenges. It was not to be. It seems the result was more conclusive than anyone expected.
That brings an end to the long-running question of who? and replaces it with the similarly long-running what? The media are now filled with column-inches asking what Trump will do once he arrives in the White House.
No one knows, of course. Donald Trump is notoriously unpredictable and the speculations of journalists, most of whom are not sympathetic to his approach, are unlikely to be reliable. We just don’t know.
It does seem likely this will make containing Climate Change harder as Trump has already promised to increase drilling for oil, though how much he can affect that remains to be seen. It goads his opponents when he says things like that, but how much substance will emerge behind this provocative comment is just another unknown. When it comes to all the issues; world instability, wars, trade, alliances and other international matters, they remain as uncertain now as before the vote and will continue to do so until office is handed over in late January. Only in the months which follow will we find out what this all means.
The foregoing is in practical terms. What is clear is what it means in political terms, for it seems to confirm what I have believed for nearly 20 years; the political class is out of touch with ordinary people. This alienation of the politicians in the West from their electorates is damaging to the whole notion of democracy and to the freedom on which it depends and which depends on it. An electorate feeling unheard is a very dangerous thing, for it will resort to evermore extreme measures and support evermore extreme voices in its effort to be listened to. As a result, extremists who care little for fairness and justice as most of us understand it gain support and although that expresses the public anger and potential revolutionary spirit, it doesn’t actually make life better. The extremists, while understanding the current regime is out of touch, are unlikely to listen any better. Indeed, they won’t need to, for they will ensure the people fear them rather than the other way round.
We desperately need a new political grouping, one that understands how out-of-touch the current ruling class are, but seeks not to use that for its own aims but to restore the genuine democracy being lost. Unfortunately, I do not yet see the beginnings of any such movement, though I do know others who feel as I do.
Five years ago I thought I had found, and joined, such a party. I read its founding documents and its declared position and thought it made sense. What I didn’t appreciate was that a party which had doubtlessly been founded in good faith had been too small to resist takeover by a few determined people with a very different attitude and the people now in control do not believe in the ideas which attracted me to join. I fell out with them when I tried to stand up for their declared principles and they tried to silence me, so I left.
We need a centrist, moderate party which does not disappear down social-media rabbit holes or adopt unscientific approaches to the real world to appease those who wish reality were different. We need a party which is sympathetic to the dissatisfied but does not try to invent simple solutions which fail to reflect reality. We need something sensible and compassionate, representing as many as possible but not being swayed by the loudest voices, which feels for the marginalised but does not put them first in a way which harms the majority or otherwise distorts the balance of reason. In short, we need kind common sense.
We need a society which handles disagreement not by bullying but by discussion, which is slow to reach conclusions and prepared to take time to consider issues fully. We need to be clear propaganda is not truth and only what can be clearly demonstrated is true. Wishful thinking and distress are not measures of right over wrong. We need to recognise that although feelings matter they are not facts.
Until we have a politics like that we will remain in trouble.